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                       My Storm Outlook

                    Outlook for 5/16/99   10:00am

                    Next outlook 5/16/99 1:00pm

My storm outlook is to produce good knowlodge for storm chasers and people who just want to see it they might get severe weather and how strong it will be.For Your life and death severe weather forecast please listen to your local NWS,Or the SPC,Dont rely on my forecast always being right because it wont be.Please click here for my forecast catagories.Forecast Catagories

Well Everyone were in for a good one today I think.First off all conditions look very good,dewpoints at early morning show dewpoints well into the mid 60s to mainly low 70s in the plains.Also capes already in excess of 3000+ are in central Ks.Also noticing a   deepening low in northern Ks slowly moving to the east.At the same time 40-50kt winds are developing in the upper atmosphere allowing for even more shear.

Now Lets cut to the chase!

I expect a very good size outbreak today with a MUCH weaker cap already this morning along the dryline,also noticing the push of dry air on the RUC may be a little fast it already pushing the best moisture into SE Ks by about 18z.Belive dryline will reach near Wichita to Enid line sometime around 7-8pm.Elsewhere along the dryline expect a good bulge intoNW Tx this afternoon,Also another somewhere in Nw Oklahoma.The cap should be able to break sometime around 3-5pm with deepening shortwave moving out of Arizona this morning into New Mexico,Though it appears that it may not make it in here till tonight though low level convergence with weaker cap should spell at least some isolated severe cells this afternoon.Though tonight the bigger show may arrive with more of a widespread show.

Threat(chances)?

Hail looks to be a major threat once again this evening wouldent be surprised to see some reports of 1.75 inch up easily.

Wind will also be a big threat especially in Ks.

Now for tornadoes they look like a very good chance today with a few strong lived ones I think.Especially along the bulges in the dryline.

I will issue another outlook around 1pm so watch for that!